Any Suggestions?

I need ideas.  I have a post on climate change in the works, but that's still about a week away from being done.  So on what should I expound?

Leave your ideas in the comments section.

Making Babies

I got involved in a discussion on Facebook on teen pregnancy.  It started like this - "So what's the best way to end teen pregnancies?"  Usually I'm not one to enter a conversation without having data at hand to support my position, but I entered this one with a smartass comment about Bristol Palin and her father Todd.  I suspended my participation for a couple of reasons, but now that I've done my homework, I'm ready to respond.

In 2008, the teen pregnancy rate was 67.8 per 1,000 women aged 15 through 19. (1)  In 1990, it reach a peak of 117 pregnant teens per 1,000.  So something right is happening when the rate declines by 42%.

(2) Fast Facts: Teen Pregnancy in the United States, The National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy. http://www.thenationalcampaign.org/resources/pdf/FastFacts_TeenPregnancyinUS.pdf

Could the reason be the seemingly increased religious fervor being seen in segments of US society?  Surprisingly, the answer is no.  A 2009 study shows "conservative religious beliefs predict teen birth rates highly and significantly." (3) One of the authors suggests "that religious communities in the US are more successful in discouraging the use of contraception among their teenagers than they are in discouraging sexual intercourse itself." (4) This conclusion is based almost 36,000 religiosity responses collected by the Pew Foundation and teen pregnancy rates reported by the Center for Disease Control's National Center for Health Statistics.

How about family structure?  Does coming from a home without a father present increase a teen's odds of becoming pregnant? No.  Family structure and for that matter, race and ethnicity are not as important factors as poverty. (5)  This conclusion is based on detailed data collected from 12,000 students in middle and high school all across the country.

I've known some women who became mothers long before they planned to.  They are all strong women who love their children and provide a good home life for their children.  But the problems of teen pregnancy are the increased probability that the family will be poor, and the babies will be premature and more likely to be victims of abuse and neglect.

Perhaps the most surprising statistic is that teens do not have the highest rate of unplanned pregnancy.  The highest rate (106 unplanned pregnancies per 1,000) is for college age women.  When considering marital status, the rate is 138 for cohabitating couples.  Looking at income level, for women with incomes less than the federal poverty threshold, the rate is 112.  Women with a college degree or who are over 35 have the lowest rates of unplanned pregnancy. (6)

So what is the answer to this serious problem?  I have no idea.

Except that education and consistent contraceptive use are effective at preventing pregnancy.  Making jokes about contraception is counterproductive as is promoting the idea that "[contraception is] a license to do things."  Virtually all US women (more than 99%) use some form of contraception. (7)

If we could only get the entire world to use a convenient and effective form of birth control; we might have a shot at reducing poverty and hunger

(1) U.S. Teenage Pregnancies, Births and Abortions, 2008: National Trends by Age, Race and Ethnicity, Kost, K., & Henshaw, S. (2012). Retrieved February 2012, from http://www. guttmacher.org/pubs/ustptrends08.pdf.

(2) Fast Facts: Teen Pregnancy in the United States, The National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy. http://www.thenationalcampaign.org/resources/pdf/FastFacts_TeenPregnancyinUS.pdf

(3) Religiosity and teen birth rate in the United States, Joseph M. Strayhorn, Jillian C. Strayhorn, Department of Psychiatry, Drexel University College of Medicine and University of Pittsburgh, http://www.reproductive-health-journal.com/imedia/1545549611271544_article.pdf?random=414460

(4) Religion’s Link to Teen Pregnancy, Lisa Belkin, New York Times, September 17, 2009.  http://parenting.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/religions-link-to-teen-pregnancy/

(5)The Effects of Race/Ethnicity, Income, and Family Structure on Adolescent Risk Behaviors

Robert W. Blum, MD, et al., http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.90.12.1879 

(6) The DCR Report, The National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy. http://www.thenationalcampaign.org/resources/DCR/default.aspx

(7) In Brief: Facts on Contraceptive Use in the United States, June 2010.  http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/fb_contr_use.html

Love Is A Drug

Oh oh. Catch that buzz

Love is the drug I'm thinking of.

Oh oh.  Can't you see?

Love is the drug for me.

This article isn't really about the biological/physiological response we call love.  It's about Valentine's day.  No, it's not about Valentine's day either.  It's about what we romantics usually give to our significant others on Valentine's day.

What makes chocolate so special?  Maybe it's the theobromine it contains.  Theobromine is a chemical classified as a alkaloid.

Since ancient times, alkaloids have been a favorite of humans.  People have used them for both their therapeutic properties, as well as for purely recreational purposes.

What other alkaloids do humans like?  Below is a list of some of humanity's favorites. [DISCLAIMER: I am not endorsing the use and/or abuse of any of the chemicals listed.  Some are just dangerous; others are quite useful and help me get through the morning.]

• Caffeine - My Wonder Drug.  What would I do in the morning with my three or four cups of coffee?
• Cocaine
• Nicotine
• Morphine/Heroin -  A little trivia for you.  The word Heroin was trademarked in the early 20th century by the Bayer pharmaceutical company.
• Codeine
• Serotonin - a neurotransmitter in your brain
• Psilocybin
• Ergotamine - possibly responsible for the witch accusations in Salem, MA, but many historians discount this.
• Histamine - if you suffer from allergies, you can blame this alkaloid.
• Capsaicin - spicy food lovers know this chemical

So give your beloved a box of chocolates, and enjoy the mild effects of this vasodilator.

By the way, make sure to the click the link embedded in the song lyrics above -  Bryan Ferry and Roxy Music.

Get Small; Get Large

As a physicist, I have developed a sense of scale.  It's takes practice to develop it, but after all, physicists think every day about about the very small (like a atom's nucleus) to the very large (like galactic clusters).

Even then, when I see a clear visual demonstration of the scale of the universe, I am never anything less but awed.

Animation Credit to HTwins.net

Math and Taxes

There's been quite a lot of news coverage on what Presidential candidates pay in income tax.  This got me to thinking about what I pay in taxes, not because I don't like paying taxes.  I really do enjoy it. My money paves the roads I drive on. It makes the skies safe when I fly (it also pays the salaries of the sometimes surly TSA agents).  It provides affordable education to the nation's students, and it provides a little financial security and healthcare to seniors.  These are a few of my favorite things.

Mitt Romney says that his effective tax rate is about 15% while Newt Gingrich's tax returns shows his is 32%.  Calculating  the effective tax rate is easy, but before I cover that, let's explore the federal tax rates for 2011.  Here are the federal tax rates for 2011.

I remember an urban myth about these tax rates.  I haven't heard it recently so maybe this is one myth that has finally died.  The myth says that if a person was near the top of one tax bracket and got a raise that bumped that person into the next bracket, the person would end up taking home less pay than before.  But that's not how these brackets work.  UPDATE: USA Today published an article on Sept. 2, 2011 that contained this error.

Let me illustrate.  Suppose a single woman earns $34,100 in 2011.  I mean for this amount to represent her taxable income; basically, taxable income is your income minus personal exemptions and deductions.  The first $8,500 is taxed at 10%, so she pays $850 to the IRS.  She is taxed at 15% for only the difference between $34,100 and $8,500.  So, the tax on $25,600 is $3,840.  Her total tax liability is then $4,690.

To find her effective tax rate is really simple.  Take the total amount of taxes paid and divide by her taxable income.  Here, $4,690/$34,100 = 0.138 = 13.8%.

Now suppose she gets a raise (in this economy?), and her 2012 taxable income rises to $35,700.  The 2012 tax brackets have been inflation adjusted.

So next year she can expect to pay $870 (10%) on $8,700, $3,997.50 (15%) on $26,650, and $87.50 on $350.  Her 2012 taxes will then be $4954.50, and her effective tax rate will be $4954.50/$35,700 = 0.139 = 13.9%

According to my 2010 return, my effective tax rate was 19.1%.  

With all the talk about the 99% and the 1%, I wonder where I am.  I earn a 'nice dime.'  I found a % calculator on the Kiplinger website.  Kiplinger is a financial advice and forecast business.  It figures that I'm in the top 10% of American wage earners.

So I played around with it.  To be in the top 5%, you need an income of $175,000.  The 1%?  $350,000.  

When I was much younger, I would tell people that I wanted to earn a comfortable living.  They'd asked what comfortable was.  The smartass that I am replied that if I could lose half of my income and still be comfortable, that was a comfortable living.  If I earned $350,000 and lost half of that, could I still be comfortable?  

Wouldn't I like to try!

[N.B. Here are the tax brackets from 1919 to 2011.]

My Personal Periodic Table

Here are the only elements I need.

The Future Is In Good Hands

Here are two 4-year old girls.  They make me feel good about the future of civilization.

Stella explains the mistakes in this dinosaur toy.

Riley wonders about companies marketing to young children.